What happened after the line moved
For every size of move from the opening number to the close, how the games finished. When a total rose 5 points, how often did the game go over? When a spread moved 2 points toward the favorite, how often did the favorite cover?
Two ways to measure a move
Against the opening number: did the game finish on the side the line moved toward, measured from where the line started? That's the number you could only have bet before the move happened.
Against the closing number: the price still on offer after the move. If a move carried information the final line hadn't already priced in, it would show up in this column.
Every game counts, including the misses. Pushes are left out of the percentages. Rows with fewer than 20 games are faded and left off the charts: too few to read much into. These describe past games and don't predict future ones.
College football
Game total (over/under): over, by size of move
1960 games. Lines: ESPN (ESPN BET and DraftKings) for 2024 and 2025, plus Pinnacle this season.
In the move sizes with at least 100 games (-3, -2, -1, no move, +1, +2), the over rate ranged from 43% to 52% against the open and 48% to 54% against the close.
| Line move | Games | Over, against the open | Over, against the close |
|---|---|---|---|
| -8Fell 8 or more | 2 | 0% | 50% |
| -7Fell 6.5 to 7 | 5 | 20% | 40% |
| -6Fell 5.5 to 6 | 16 | 56% | 81% |
| -5Fell 4.5 to 5 | 36 | 44% | 58% |
| -4Fell 3.5 to 4 | 80 | 46% | 56% |
| -3Fell 2.5 to 3 | 145 | 43% | 48% |
| -2Fell 1.5 to 2 | 216 | 46% | 54% |
| -1Fell 0.5 to 1 | 372 | 50% | 53% |
| 0No move | 476 | 49% | 49% |
| +1Rose 0.5 to 1 | 302 | 52% | 51% |
| +2Rose 1.5 to 2 | 164 | 51% | 48% |
| +3Rose 2.5 to 3 | 79 | 52% | 47% |
| +4Rose 3.5 to 4 | 35 | 71% | 63% |
| +5Rose 4.5 to 5 | 18 | 39% | 28% |
| +6Rose 5.5 to 6 | 8 | 75% | 38% |
| +7Rose 6.5 to 7 | 3 | 67% | 67% |
| +8Rose 8 or more | 3 | 100% | 100% |
Spread: favorite covered, by size of move
1958 games. Lines: ESPN (ESPN BET and DraftKings) for 2024 and 2025, plus Pinnacle this season. Moves are measured from the team favored at the open: toward the favorite means it became a bigger favorite. Games that opened at pick'em are left out.
In the move sizes with at least 100 games (-3, -2, -1, no move, +1, +2, +3), the favorite-cover rate ranged from 45% to 58% against the open and 49% to 54% against the close.
| Line move | Games | Favorite covered, against the open | Favorite covered, against the close |
|---|---|---|---|
| -88 or more toward the underdog | 1 | 0% | 0% |
| -76.5 to 7 toward the underdog | 2 | 0% | 0% |
| -65.5 to 6 toward the underdog | 6 | 50% | 67% |
| -54.5 to 5 toward the underdog | 28 | 43% | 57% |
| -43.5 to 4 toward the underdog | 67 | 43% | 53% |
| -32.5 to 3 toward the underdog | 106 | 48% | 53% |
| -21.5 to 2 toward the underdog | 194 | 45% | 51% |
| -10.5 to 1 toward the underdog | 373 | 46% | 49% |
| 0No move | 474 | 53% | 53% |
| +10.5 to 1 toward the favorite | 331 | 51% | 49% |
| +21.5 to 2 toward the favorite | 171 | 56% | 53% |
| +32.5 to 3 toward the favorite | 107 | 58% | 54% |
| +43.5 to 4 toward the favorite | 53 | 58% | 43% |
| +54.5 to 5 toward the favorite | 22 | 73% | 54% |
| +65.5 to 6 toward the favorite | 8 | 62% | 38% |
| +76.5 to 7 toward the favorite | 4 | 75% | 75% |
| +88 or more toward the favorite | 11 | 73% | 46% |
First-half total: over, by size of move
222 games. Lines: Pinnacle, this season.
| Line move | Games | Over, against the open | Over, against the close |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1Fell 0.5 to 1 | 5 | 40% | 60% |
| 0No move | 217 | 49% | 49% |
First-half spread: favorite covered, by size of move
222 games. Lines: Pinnacle, this season. Moves are measured from the team favored at the open: toward the favorite means it became a bigger favorite. Games that opened at pick'em are left out.
| Line move | Games | Favorite covered, against the open | Favorite covered, against the close |
|---|---|---|---|
| -32.5 to 3 toward the underdog | 1 | 0% | 0% |
| -21.5 to 2 toward the underdog | 1 | 0% | 0% |
| -10.5 to 1 toward the underdog | 5 | 60% | 60% |
| 0No move | 210 | 51% | 51% |
| +10.5 to 1 toward the favorite | 4 | 50% | 50% |
| +21.5 to 2 toward the favorite | 1 | 100% | 100% |
NFL
Game total (over/under): over, by size of move
541 games. Lines: ESPN (ESPN BET and DraftKings) for 2024 and 2025, plus Pinnacle this season.
In the move sizes with at least 100 games (-1, no move, +1), the over rate ranged from 51% to 56% against the open and 54% to 56% against the close.
| Line move | Games | Over, against the open | Over, against the close |
|---|---|---|---|
| -8Fell 8 or more | 2 | 50% | 50% |
| -6Fell 5.5 to 6 | 3 | 33% | 67% |
| -5Fell 4.5 to 5 | 8 | 50% | 75% |
| -4Fell 3.5 to 4 | 12 | 25% | 42% |
| -3Fell 2.5 to 3 | 31 | 55% | 58% |
| -2Fell 1.5 to 2 | 57 | 47% | 54% |
| -1Fell 0.5 to 1 | 113 | 51% | 54% |
| 0No move | 141 | 56% | 56% |
| +1Rose 0.5 to 1 | 103 | 56% | 54% |
| +2Rose 1.5 to 2 | 46 | 44% | 41% |
| +3Rose 2.5 to 3 | 19 | 47% | 47% |
| +4Rose 3.5 to 4 | 5 | 80% | 40% |
| +5Rose 4.5 to 5 | 1 | 0% | 0% |
Spread: favorite covered, by size of move
539 games. Lines: ESPN (ESPN BET and DraftKings) for 2024 and 2025, plus Pinnacle this season. Moves are measured from the team favored at the open: toward the favorite means it became a bigger favorite. Games that opened at pick'em are left out.
In the move sizes with at least 100 games (no move, +1), the favorite-cover rate ranged from 48% to 56% against the open and 44% to 56% against the close.
| Line move | Games | Favorite covered, against the open | Favorite covered, against the close |
|---|---|---|---|
| -88 or more toward the underdog | 2 | 0% | 50% |
| -65.5 to 6 toward the underdog | 4 | 0% | 0% |
| -54.5 to 5 toward the underdog | 13 | 38% | 46% |
| -43.5 to 4 toward the underdog | 15 | 67% | 73% |
| -32.5 to 3 toward the underdog | 20 | 55% | 65% |
| -21.5 to 2 toward the underdog | 37 | 41% | 49% |
| -10.5 to 1 toward the underdog | 89 | 49% | 53% |
| 0No move | 149 | 56% | 56% |
| +10.5 to 1 toward the favorite | 127 | 48% | 44% |
| +21.5 to 2 toward the favorite | 52 | 58% | 50% |
| +32.5 to 3 toward the favorite | 12 | 54% | 50% |
| +43.5 to 4 toward the favorite | 10 | 90% | 80% |
| +54.5 to 5 toward the favorite | 3 | 67% | 67% |
| +65.5 to 6 toward the favorite | 3 | 100% | 67% |
| +76.5 to 7 toward the favorite | 1 | 100% | 0% |
| +88 or more toward the favorite | 2 | 50% | 0% |